Interview, NATO Summit Public Forum

SUBJECTS: Partnering in the Indo-Pacific; cooperation between the Euro-Atlantic and the Indo-Pacific theatres; influence of Ukraine War on Indo-Pacific.

SPEAKER: Hi everybody, welcome back from the break, and thank you to […] Studio Bravo for leading another thought-provoking conversation, which leads us seamlessly into the next important theme on today's Plenary Program; security in the Euro‑Atlantic and Indo-Pacific regions are increasingly interconnected. 

So how do our partners in the Indo-Pacific perceive the current security landscape, and how do they envision their revolving relationship with NATO? What steps can NATO allies and partners take to deepen cooperation on the shared challenges we face? 

Well, to explore those questions, Lynn Kuok, Lee Kuan Yew Chair at the Brookings Institution will lead a fireside conversation on partnering in the Indo-Pacific, deeper cooperation, shared challenges. 

Soon Lynn will arrive, and the conversation will begin. Thank you. 

LYNN KUOK: Good afternoon, everyone. A very warm welcome to the session, on Partnering in the Indo-Pacific, Deeper cooperation, Shared challenges. 

My name is Lynn Kuok and I'm joined by the Deputy Prime Minister of Australia as well as Defence Minister, Richard Marles. Thank you so much for joining us today, sir. 

DEPUTY PRIME MINISTER: Great to be with you, Lynn. 

LYNN KUOK: We don't have all that much time, so let's jump straight into it. I'd like to explore both the logic as well as the limits of cooperation between the Euro‑Atlantic and the Indo-Pacific theatres as well as how Australia sees its role across both theatres. 

So earlier this month, the US, NATO Ambassador, Matthew Whitaker, who we heard from yesterday, said the Indo-Pacific matters for Transatlantic security, alluding to the interconnectedness between the two theatres, but the US Deputy Secretary of State, the No.2 in the State Department, replied that NATO is still a solution in search of a problem. 

Does Christopher Landau have a point? Does NATO have any business being in the Indo-Pacific, given that its geographic remit is indeed the North Atlantic? 

DEPUTY PRIME MINISTER: Well, I think the starting point is that, from a country located in the Indo-Pacific, and a country which feels that the strategic landscape in the Indo-Pacific is as complex and in some ways as threatening as it has been really at any point since the end of the Second World War, that as we assess our own strategic threats, our challenges, what we need to be building as a Defence Force to meet those challenges, but what that demands of us is to be completely focused on the Indo-Pacific. 

So that's how we fundamentally come to think about Australia's strategic landscape and what we need to do. And you know, we are very focused on how we can build a Defence Force which can deter any potential adversary which might seek to coerce us, on the one hand, but also understanding that the defence of Australia is based in the peace and stability of the Pacific, of Southeast Asia, of Northeast Asia, of the North East Indian Ocean. 

What we need to be doing is to be playing our part in the collective security of those regions. So that's what we are fundamentally about, but at the heart of that is the rules-based order, and the maintenance of the rules-based order, which in some ways is under pressure in the Indo-Pacific. 

So when we watch China and Russia enter into a no limits agreement on the eve of Russia's invasion of Ukraine, in that moment, it becomes clear to us that a conflict that is playing out in Eastern Europe is going to start providing lessons for behaviours in the Indo-Pacific. In other words, you know, we can't be focused on the Indo-Pacific and all that is playing out there without having some acknowledgement and some understanding and some engagement now in respect of a conflict which is in Eastern Europe. 

And that in turn means that we find ourselves much more engaged with NATO. This Summit, in terms of our annual calendar, has become a much more significant event because of this. 

So, you know, the bulk of the Indo-Pacific countries' strategic effort is going to be in the Indo-Pacific, the bulk of European countries, North American countries is going to be in the North Atlantic, but the two theatres are clearly having an influence on each other. And so if you only come to this from the perspective of how you manage your own theatre, it can't be done without contemplating how the other is influencing it and having some understanding and some engagement with that, and that ultimately does speak to the connection that exists. 

LYNN KUOK: Thank you so much. So that's quite compelling logic for why the two theatres are connected, the security challenges are common, but also the impact on the rules-based international order. So if the rules undermined in one part of the world, it's undermined elsewhere as well. 

DEPUTY PRIME MINISTER: Exactly. Well, in fact we were talking a lot earlier about your former role with the Shangri-La Dialogue which took place a few weeks ago in Singapore, and President Macron was the keynote speaker there. 

Actually, it was really interesting during the dialogue, Europe's always been present there, but I think all of us noted the presence of Europe at this particular Shangri-La Dialogue with intent, like in a way that perhaps we hadn't seen before, which was interesting. 

But President Macron made exactly the point you just made in his keynote. He said there's not multiple rules-based orders, there is one rules-based order, and when it is under threat or on trial in one part of the world that is relevant to everyone. I think when we look at what's playing out in Ukraine, in many ways the rules-based order is on trial in Ukraine, and so how that ultimately eventuates is relevant to the expression of the rules-based order in the Indo-Pacific. 

LYNN KUOK: Yeah, you mentioned President Macron's speech at the Shangri-La Dialogue. I believe he mentioned in there that although he used to be sceptical about NATO's involvement in the Indo-Pacific, because of Chinese actions in terms of support for Russia in its Ukraine War, he was increasingly of the view ‑ and putting words a little bit in his mouth now - but I think he was less sceptical now about NATO's role in the Indo-Pacific. 

DEPUTY PRIME MINISTER: A hundred per cent, and he also referenced North Korean troops fighting on European soil. 

LYNN KUOK: Right. 

DEPUTY PRIME MINISTER: And so, you know, the NA is still going to be part, North Atlantic is clearly the focus of what NATO is about; no one is suggesting anything different. 

But clearly these theatres are connected. We see that in terms of the influence of a conflict in Eastern Europe on the Indo-Pacific, but you know, from a European perspective, he was articulating that he's seen actors in the Indo-Pacific influencing what's happening in Europe. 

LYNN KUOK: Yeah. But even if we do accept the logic of the interconnected theatres, and I think I do as well as you do as well, is NATO really the best vehicle for addressing common challenges? After all, I think there are several numerous Asian countries, not just China, who are worried about the potential militarisation of the region because of a NATO presence, and of course, you said that the primary focus would be still the Euro-Atlantic, but nonetheless, that's a huge focus for Europe, and it has challenges of its own here. 

DEPUTY PRIME MINISTER: Sure. 

LYNN KUOK: It has Ukraine, the wider Russia threat, the potential US disengagement, as well as the pressure to spend more on defence. Shouldn't each region then just be focusing on what it does best, namely its own region, so the notion of comparative advantage? 

DEPUTY PRIME MINISTER: I think the two things can sit together. I mean you used the word "focus", I suppose yes. I mean NATO is going to focus on the North Atlantic, and I think it is, and countries in the Indo-Pacific Four are going to be focused on the Indo-Pacific, you know, we are, but that doesn't mean that you have a complete ignoring of what's happening in the other theatre. 

In fact, you know, from where I sit, to focus on your theatre means to intelligently apprehend how the other theatre is influencing you. It is difficult to focus on the theatre without seeing what's playing out in Europe and its influence on the Indo-Pacific from our perspective and vice versa. 

So I don't think anyone's saying that, you know, people are getting outside of their lane, and that, you know, people are gratuitously getting their fingers in other pies, it's not that. 

LYNN KUOK: Yeah. 

DEPUTY PRIME MINISTER: It is that to do our core business we need to have an enlarged vision, which understands how each theatre is interacting, and -- 

LYNN KUOK: So how do you envisage -- 

DEPUTY PRIME MINISTER: China and Russia have signed a no limits agreement, it kind of starts there, and we are seeing it play out. 

LYNN KUOK: So how do you envisage, for example, Europe's, or NATO's role in the event of two potential contingencies in the Indo-Pacific, namely the South China Sea and Taiwan? Do you envisage them playing a kinetic role or something less than that? 

DEPUTY PRIME MINISTER: I think it's probably not for me to speculate on those sort of scenarios, and it comes back to what you said earlier. I mean NATO is a vehicle, it's not the only, but what NATO is is an organisation which, you know, amongst other objectives stands for the rules-based order. 

We engage with a whole lot of organisations, multilateral organisations in the Indo-Pacific, which also stand for the rules-based order. There are ways in which we can all cooperate together, and I think that's how we see it. So it's not trying to overstate a NATO role in the Indo-Pacific. 

I mean for us, and I think that does need to be, you know, measured very carefully and calibrated very carefully, so that's not what it's about, but it is about understanding how each theatre is impacting on the other. 

I mean, look, for us this sounds strange as a country which is not a party to ASEAN, but ASEAN centrality is something that we see as profoundly important and in Australia's national interest, it greatly matters to us that you have a coherent Southeast Asia to Australia's north, we want to do everything we can to support that, and so we, you know, would not be in favour of supporting anything which undermines that. 

But there are other kind of constructs which, you know, I think ASEAN is comfortable providing a lattice work of relationships which fundamentally help underpin the rules-based order in the region, and for ASEAN, that is a key objective. 

LYNN KUOK: Speaking about the rules-based order and the challenges to it, it's impossible to speak about the Indo-Pacific as well as Euro-Atlantic, of course, without talking about the United States. 

How has the present administration's ambivalence towards NATO and its treatment of allies and partners in Asia shaped how Australia's, as well as other Indo-Pacific Four countries view the alliance; for example, South Korea, reportedly earlier this year paused ammunition, which would have supported Ukraine's efforts after Trump's return, so after he came into office, South Korea reportedly paused its ammunition supply pending clarity on US policy towards NATO, and at this Summit we have but one of the Indo-Pacific Four leaders present. So your Prime Minister is absent, the South Korean President has declined to attend, and the Japanese Prime Minister accepted, and then subsequently declined, withdrew from the Summit after a 2+2 meeting between Japan as well as the United States in Washington was cancelled earlier. 

So how is the new - not so new now - US Administration impacting the Indo-Pacific Four's support of NATO? 

DEPUTY PRIME MINISTER: I wouldn't overread, you know, the presence at any given meeting of leaders. I think that's the first point I would make. Secondly, I think, you know, the logic as I've tried to articulate it, about why from a country's perspective who is very focused on the Indo-Pacific, why Europe now matters more perhaps than it did five, 10 years ago, I mean I think that logic is all still there. 

We certainly regard, as I say, this forum as being much more significant to us than it would have been five years ago, and indeed in that time our Prime Minister has attended two NATO summits, and I've now attended two. 

I wouldn't necessarily accept the assertion which was in your question in relation to where the US is at. I mean, again, from our point of view, I mean I think the US has shown real focus on the Indo-Pacific, we are grateful for that and encouraged by that. 

In the meetings that I've had my counterpart, Pete Hegseth, there's been, I mean they've been really good meetings and I think a very clear sense of what challenges we face, and a desire to work together in facing them. And indeed, when you look at Pete Hegseth's speech that he made at the Shangri-La Dialogue, I mean he said a lot in that speech, but it was an articulation of the importance of allies to America. 

Well, again, you know, that's a very encouraging thing for us to hear in the Indo-Pacific, and I, you know, as I've spoken to European countries today, they are very keen to pursue their alliance arrangements with the United States from this end as well. 

LYNN KUOK: Thank you. So I mean, I think what I've heard from you is that it's - we shouldn't take attendance at this Summit as an indicator of, you know, commitment of the IP4 players to NATO in the future and vice versa, of course. So I certainly hope that the logic of the interconnectedness between the two theatres will hold, and it's more about that logic prevailing as opposed to any US Administration or any turbulence in place impacting that. So let's hope there's a steadfast clarity about the importance of the rules-based international order. 

In terms of, you know, let's turn to speak a little bit about Australia, and its role in this region as well as in the Indo-Pacific. Australia has always been a committed support of Ukraine as well as the understanding of the importance of the rules-based international order. But it's quite clear that pressures in Asia are mounting; there are, you know, grey zone encroachments into international law, et cetera, but there are also question marks about US commitments in the Indo-Pacific. 

You talked about the clarity of Hegseth's speech at the Shangri-La Dialogue, however, it's also clear that the US tends to be drawn in other directions. Just last week we had a US aircraft carrier move from the Indo-Pacific as it was on its way to Vietnam to make a call in Vietnam headed to the Middle East. Despite the commitment of the United States to the Indo-Pacific as its priority theatre, we've seen, you know, actions taken against allies and partners in the economic realm at least, which have caused some turbulence and ruffled some feathers. 

Will Australia be able to sustain its current levels of commitment towards Ukraine given that, you know, it might have to step up to the plate, step up more to the plate in the Indo-Pacific, because Australia is a treasured partner, both economically as well as in the security realm in the Indo-Pacific, and it's going to see perhaps greater calls for greater presence and commitment there as well. 

DEPUTY PRIME MINISTER: It's a good question, and obviously all of those are challenging issues that we need to balance as we go forward, and you know, just briefly in terms of the US, I mean US is a global power, it is - there are calls on its attention everywhere literally. 

I mean one of the things that's, having now worked with the former US Secretary of Defence and the current US Secretary of Defence, one of my habits before I meet them is to ask them where they've just been, and you really do get a sense that, you know, they are, both of those people have been doing, and Peter's now doing a job which just has a global call on his attention, and that's as it is, and we understand it. 

And so there are going to be in the micro decisions that are made about any given asset moving in one direction or another, and you know, you've kind of got to be sympathetic to the decisions that confront any given person in that situation. 

But on the broad, we do feel encouraged about America's focus on the Indo-Pacific, and we remain so. For our end, in terms of that balance, our focus is the Indo-Pacific; that was the core call from our Defence Strategic Review, our strategic assessment when we came into government, and that was the most significant root and branch assessment of our strategic circumstances that a government had done in, you know, the better part of 40 years. 

And so focus is very much an outcome of that. But as I said earlier, you know, from where we sit, to be intelligently focused on the Indo-Pacific, we have to be alive to the way in which the war in Ukraine is influencing the Indo‑Pacific. And so it's not going to be the bulk of our activity, but it is going to be some of our activity to support Ukraine, and we will continue to do so. 

At this NATO Summit, we're announcing that we will be doing another deployment of our E7 aircraft in August of this year into Poland to provide very important support to the effort there. There's about 100 Australian personnel who come with that who will be over here for a three‑month deployment. It's a significant commitment in terms of what assets we have. 

I was able to meet with my counterpart, Rustem Umerov yesterday, and we had a conversation about how we can, you know, move forward in terms of providing support, and you know, for however long this takes for Ukraine to resolve this conflict on its terms. 

We will be there, and it's balanced and measured across all the other calls on our attention, but we do see this as a conflict which is relevant to the strategic landscape in the Indo-Pacific, and therefore is a conflict which is relevant to our national interest. 

LYNN KUOK: Thank you so much, Deputy Prime Minister, for that compelling argument about why international developments, particularly those that impact the rules-based international order affect not just the country it directly impacts but all countries who care about the rules-based international order and how it keeps them safe and prosperous. 

Thank you very much, sir, and thank you all for your attention. 

DEPUTY PRIME MINISTER: Thanks Lynn.

ENDS