In Conversation, Indian Ocean Defence and Security Conference, Perth

SUBJECTS: Exercise Pitch Black; US Presidential election; AUKUS; Submarine Rotational Force–West; Global rules-based order; Henderson Precinct; Defence industry; Surface fleet; Russia-India; AFL Western Derby.

JESSICA PAGE, MODERATOR: Minister for Defence, Richard Marles, good afternoon and welcome to WA and to the Indian Ocean Defence and Security 2024 Conference. Thank you, pleasure to have you here in Perth. 

Before we get to the subject at hand, AUKUS, there is breaking news this afternoon. An aircraft has crashed near Darwin, part of the Pitch Black military exercises. Do you have any information to hand? Hopefully everyone is okay.

RICHARD MARLES, DEPUTY PRIME MINISTER: Yeah, we think everyone is okay, we know everyone is okay. This was an aircraft of one of our international partners, so it was not a RAAF jet. The pilot ejected, has been picked up, is safe and is currently in hospital in Darwin. But, you know, we're pretty confident that injuries are minor. The aircraft itself was lost. It happened south of Darwin and so, the site itself where the plane came down has been secured and managed. But thankfully we've managed to get through this without any serious injury. And I think that, you know, it's another moment where we reflect on the professionalism and the excellence of those who wear our nation's uniform in the way in which they did respond to this. Exercise Pitch Black has been suspended for the day. We're working through some immediate issues around that, but it's expected that we'll have the exercise up and running pretty quickly.

PAGE: Good news that everyone is ok. The other big news story of the past fortnight, of course, has been the emergence of a very high profile job vacancy. I have to ask you, can the West Coast Eagles please borrow Chris Scott from Geelong?

MARLES: Absolutely effing not. I've had enough pain at the hands of the West Coast Eagles over my lifetime. They can get their cold mitts off Chris Scott.

PAGE: Message received. Serious business, now. Of course, there is a leadership transition underway. You met with President Biden just twelve days ago on the sidelines of NATO. Given what you saw there, were you shocked by his decision this week?

MARLES: Well, look, I mean, obviously these are difficult issues that have been worked through. I think it is a moment to just record the contribution that Joe Biden has made to public life in the United States, but really to the security of the world. Certainly, from our government's perspective, in terms of the relationship that we've had with the Biden Administration and with President Biden himself, we couldn't be happier with where the Alliance is at, where our relationship is at, the presence of America within our region. I mean, I think when we think about American administrations, as, you know, we go back over time, a large part of how we measure it is the level of intent and interest and focus that we get from American administrations on the Indo-Pacific. And by that measure, the Biden Administration, President Biden himself have been, has been absolutely excellent. 

I did meet President Biden at the NATO conference. He was engaged in that conference – and, again, it was a very important event marking the 75^th anniversary of NATO. But this is a big decision that he has made. And obviously, you know, we're all riveted by American politics. But I think the thing I want to say about that is we have to give America its space as a democracy to choose its own leadership. That's what we expect in terms of the processes that we go through when we have our own election. But I'm really confident that whoever is elected in November, the Alliance will be as strong as it’s ever been, and our equities within the Alliance, AUKUS being front and centre, will be maintained.

PAGE: It does mean, though, that for better or worse, one way or another, the US will have a new President come November. The UK has a new Prime Minister now. How does a 30 year arrangement like AUKUS survive the political change?

MARLES: Well, that, I mean, it is a really good question, and in a sense, it is the pertinent question about whether we pull AUKUS off, you know, whether it becomes– it is delivered. But the reason I have a sense of confidence about it is because, if you look at the political spectrum, I guess first and foremost here in Australia, AUKUS enjoys bipartisan support. It really has, from the moment that it was announced by the former government, through the decisions that we've made as a government, AUKUS enjoys bipartisan support in Australia. And there is a sense of confidence that people can have in the way in which Australia will walk down this path that can be taken by the comments that are not just made by the Government, but by the Opposition in relation to AUKUS.

Now, when you apply that lens to the United States, you get the same thing. I mean, at the end of last year, we had a package of legislation that went through the US Congress which was fundamental in terms of enabling AUKUS. This legislation, for example, allowed the sale of three Virginia class submarines to Australia. But it also created, really, in a kind of generational way, a seamless defence industrial base between our two countries. Now, that legislation was passed through the US Congress in a bipartisan way, with the support of Democrats, the support of Republicans, the support of Trump Republicans. And every message that has come out of the Biden Administration, Kamala Harris, but also from the Trump team in respect of AUKUS has been positive. So, I think we can have a sense of confidence there. 

And in terms of Britain, I came home from NATO via Britain. I met with John Healey, again, who's their new Defence Secretary in the UK. You know, we've made a point of maintaining relationships across the political spectrum in both countries. So, it was not meeting John for the first time. John has been a big supporter of AUKUS in opposition, he is a big supporter of AUKUS now as the UK Secretary of Defence. We can have a total sense of confidence about the Starmer government’s support for AUKUS. So, I think all of that is needed to make something which has a 30 year horizon happen. But I think people can have a sense of confidence that it will happen.

PAGE: Congress is fickle, though, and the Senate, too, especially if the Greens gain more seats in Australia next year. The legislation to pass Congress doesn't guarantee future appropriations, does it?

MARLES: Well, I mean, I think what you can take from the passage of that legislation is the support across the American spectrum for this. So, it's fair that people, you know, keep asking this question, and I think this question will continue to be asked. But in answering it – it didn't just pass the Congress; it overwhelmingly passed the Congress. Legislation in respect of AUKUS within our own system enjoys the support of the Labor Party and Coalition, and together, that is the overwhelming majority of the Senate. So, I think we can have a sense of confidence about the attitude of our Parliament, of Australian governments now and into the future, of administrations into the future in the US and governments into the future in the UK. And it's really that which gives me a real belief that this is going to happen. And, you know, it’s not just us, obviously the former government did the same thing. I mean, we're professional in the way in which we engage both the United States and the UK. But we do maintain relationships across the political spectrum, as those governments do within Australia as well, which is appropriate. And that those interactions really do give us a sense that this does have broad support.

PAGE: Having maintained interactions with them, then, will either Donald Trump or Kamala Harris demand a different approach, require a different approach from Australia? They have very different styles.

MARLS: Sure. But I don't think we will fundamentally see a different approach. I mean, no one gets to own AUKUS is the honest truth, here in Australia or in the UK or the US, meaning there will be a set of decisions which every government, for as long as they are the government, will need to make in relation to it. I think what we can have a sense of confidence about is that the decisions that have been made by former governments will be maintained by future governments as they walk forward. And as they walk forward, they'll obviously put their own mark on it, which is appropriate, but it will be in the context of a continuum. You know, we all know what the end objective here is. It is in the strategic interests of the United States and the United Kingdom for Australia to have a nuclear-powered submarine capability. It is clearly in our national interest for us to have that capability. And the fundamental of that does not change. And that's what drives this.

PAGE: The MAGA movement, though, want Donald Trump to pull out of foreign conflicts. If he becomes president again, is that a risk for the Quad, for the Asia-Pacific, and for free trade through the South China Sea?

MARLES: Well, I mean, I have seen nothing which says that anyone in America wants to [indistinct] leadership within the world, is the first point. I've seen nothing in the American discourse which seeks to diminish the role of the global rules-based order. That's fundamentally what, you know, we are all standing for in the Indo-Pacific. It's actually what we're standing for in Ukraine. You know, the maintenance of the global rules-based order, the role it plays in terms of maintaining peace within the world, but also creating a platform on which we can, as a globe, as countries within that, build prosperity. You know, that is something which has been totally supported by the United States since the war, across multiple administrations. And there's actually nothing that I've seen coming out of any of the either Republicans, or the Democrats now in the lead up to the November election, which suggests a difference to that.

PAGE: Speaking of the rules-based order; China, Russia, the war in Ukraine, “the axis of upheaval” is the term that's been used overnight. And UK General Sir Roland Walker says that we need to prepare for war within three years. Do you concur with that threat assessment?

MARLES: Well, I think it's another example of commentary which reminds us that we live in a very fragile world. I mean, there is war in Europe right now, and that war is hugely consequential for Europe, but it's hugely consequential for us here in the Indo-Pacific. I mean, what happens in Ukraine matters to Australia's national interest. So, when we talk about the fact that the rules-based order is under pressure in eastern Europe, but it is also under pressure in the Indo-Pacific, that we are going through a period of great power contest, that is what underpins the assessment that we have been making since we came to office – and indeed, the former government made it too – which is that we live in the most complex, in some respects, the most threatening strategic circumstances that we've faced as a nation since the end of the Second World War. 

Now, in the face of that, we need to be thinking, like in the immediate term, over the medium term, we need to be very clear about what our strategic objective here is. We do, in the short term, need to be making sure that we're investing, and we are. What we saw in the last Budget over the forward estimates is, over four years, is the biggest increase in defence spending that we've seen in decades over a short term four year horizon. That's reflected in what we now plan to spend over a ten year horizon. 

But it's also important that in preparing for the here and now, you know, I don't think we've ever seen such a deep engagement with our partners in the region, but also with our ally United States, and indeed with Britain, in terms of defence to defence relationships. So, you can take Korea, Japan, Philippines, Indonesia, really, Singapore, India and I will have missed out a number of countries along that line, but kind of a north-south-west arc, and our relationship with each of those countries at a defence level would be at a high water mark. We are working really hard to make sure that our relationships are the strongest they can possibly be. And if you then look at that in the context of our relationship with the United States, we see a growing American force posture on our continent. We see that in terms of the Marine Rotation in Darwin, and that has been great. But obviously, in this town, we see it with the upcoming Submarine Rotational Force-West. So, all of those things form part of our response to the moment.

PAGE: Speaking of those investments and the Submarine Rotational Force WA, the preparations for that – is workforce the biggest challenge? And how do you meet those workforce demands to underpin it in a state with 3.7 per cent unemployment and a mining industry that can pay people more?

MARLES: Yeah, look, I mean, that's a really good question. I mean, I think there are lots of challenges, firstly, but I think that's actually fair. I think workforce is the biggest challenge. And, you know, I feel confident we can meet it. But if I was to say, is there something out there which really is occupying a lot of attention a lot of the time, it is very much that. We are– building nuclear-powered submarines in Australia will be the biggest industrial endeavour our country has ever undertaken, Snowy Hydro included. You know, that's the scale. And we will be, in a sense, building nuclear-powered submarines across the country, they will be consolidated in South Australia. That is a big job. 

Here in Western Australia, to support the Submarine Rotation Force, to what that will then imply, in terms of sustaining and maintaining Virginia class submarines, you know, in the– well, in some respects, kind of now. I mean, every visit of an American nuclear-powered submarine is seeing us do more and more in respect of them. So, you know, we're taking baby steps, but literally, those baby steps are happening right now. But we will be moving to a point where those submarines will need to be sustained and maintained here in WA. You look at what we are planning in terms of building a general-purpose freedom here in Western Australia. Those things in combination are actually the biggest defence industry proposition in Western Australia's history, full stop, since federation. And you're right in a state where there are a lot of choices, where obviously, you know, the resources sector is incredibly strong, that does represent a pressure. So, with that in mind, I mean, the outset of this, I mean, it's about people, but it's about training people. You know, we are investing, we have put aside money for the training here. We're doing the training academy at Osborne, we're working closely with South Metro TAFE here in Perth around making sure we are doing the necessary training to produce the people who are able to do this work. But, we’re not sanguine about it, this is not just going to happen, this is going to need to be driven. I think the final point I want to make in relation to this, I can see Paul in the audience, like, we couldn't have a better partner than the Western Australian government in doing this and we won't be able to deliver this without that partnership. But it is something, you know, I think when you speak to Paul and we speak to Roger Cook, there is a– the sense of opportunity in terms of what this can represent in terms of diversifying the Western Australian economy is really very much being seen, embraced by the Western Australian government and there is a very strong partnership to deliver this.

PAGE: Speaking of Minister Papalia, and you mentioned that the subs are already visiting – Rome wasn't built in a day, but the infrastructure is not ready yet. When will a dry dock be built at Henderson?

MARLES: Good question. Well– so I'm not going to answer your question, on account of the fact I'm a politician. But let me say this, I think the important point to make is this: Western Australia must have the ability to maintain and sustain all the major platforms that we operate. That is a clear directive or a proposition coming out of the Defence Strategic Review. In order to be able to achieve that, a dry dock is going to be essential.

PAGE: Critical for the National Defence Strategy [indistinct].

MARLES: Absolutely right. So, being able to have a dry dock in WA in order to handle major vessels – so, to be clear, we've only got one dry dock in this country which can handle our largest vessels, and that's the Captain Cook graving yard of Sydney. We need that infrastructure on the west coast. And so, it is going to be really important to put that in place. We have some time in order to do it, but not a lot of time. So, it is a clear direction that we need to move down. But I think what– in answering this question, I also make this point: the number one goal, or milestone that we need to achieve in terms of walking down this path is a consolidation of the Henderson strip. That is a commercial consolidation of those who are operating in this space on the Henderson strip, but also from there, a physical consolidation so that we can actually, when we talk about a Henderson naval precinct, you can actually describe that by having a map with a border on it. That is the thing that we've been focused on. That is the immediate priority which we need to pursue. And again, we've been working very closely with the WA government in relation to this. And today, we've seen both Civmec and Austal announce that they'll be working together in terms of pitching for the Landing Craft Heavy. That's a really important step in terms of cooperation, working commercial cooperation on the strip, which we think can lead to a place of physical consolidation on the strip. And that is, you know, that's a precondition before we start talking about whatever infrastructure we need to put in place. Now we do need to get to a dry dock, I'm not beating around the bush on that, but getting that consolidation is the priority right now.

PAGE: I do want to get to questions from the audience, so that will save you in a moment. But you're the politician. It's harder to avoid the question. I'm the journalist who will follow it up and try again. 

MARLES: As you should. 

PAGE: You say we have some time, but not a lot of time. With Australia due to purchase our own Virginia class sub in 2032, surely we need the dry dock at Henderson by 2032? 

MARLES: Again–

PAGE: Otherwise, what's the point if we can't fix it, if it needs repairs?

MARLES: So, I'm not going to say yeah, but I think it's not– perhaps to just amplify that – we need to be thinking in terms of the Submarine Rotational Force - West. So, I don't see it actually as a function of our submarine, I see it as a function of the submarines that will start predominantly operating from HMAS Stirling much earlier than that, like, in a few years’ time. So, play that out a little bit. What we will acquire in the early 2030s from America in terms of the Virginia class submarine is a submarine which has been in service, but which has been serviced, if I can put it that way. And so there will not be an immediate need to engage in deep maintenance of the submarine we take possession of in the early 2030s. But that doesn't get us off the hook. It doesn't get us off the hook because for the Submarine Rotational Force to be meaningful, for the US to invest in it in the way that we want them to, we will need to have capability here earlier than servicing our own submarines in order to, you know, make SRF-West everything it needs to be, so–

PAGE: By 2030? 90 per cent chance? 

MARLES: Yeah, not going to put a timeline on it. But what I'm trying to say, though, is that the timeline, I don't think, is actually driven by our own subs. It's going to be driven by American subs that will be operating out of here in just a few years’ time.

PAGE: Is the funding there for it in the IIP? That was a point of contention at Senate Estimates.

MARLES: Well, the point of contention at Senate Estimates, was that the announcement that had been made by the former government prior to the election had no funding behind it. It was just an announcement, but there'd been no allocation in respect of that. We are very mindful of the need to make sure that there are the appropriate developments for the submarine program in both South Australia and Western Australia, and the funding is there for everything which is required in respect of that, both over the forward estimates and over the next decade.

PAGE: Alright, we have less than ten minutes, so I'll get over my desperate desire for a timeframe and move on to audience questions. And this is an important one, I think. How important is social licence when it comes to AUKUS? There was a small protest outside today.

MARLES: Look, I think social licence is critically important, and I think social licence is obtained in a number of ways. I think, firstly, we need to be making the argument for it. Why do we need these capabilities? What kind of a world are we living in now? I actually think when you are out there, I think there is a sense of anxiety about the state of the world, which is rational amongst the Australian people. I think there is a sense of comfort and confidence that people take from the idea that we are increasing not only our defence spending, but fundamentally increasing our defence capability by moving down the path of acquiring a nuclear-powered submarine capability. But, you know, we've got to make that argument. And then I think at a more micro level, you know, it's really important for communities which are in and around this, such as Rockingham, to make sure that, you know, we are engaging with them around, you know, issues of safety and security, how we’ll handle, operate the nuclear-powered submarines at that level. But in a sense, what I think is almost bigger is all of these things are going to need more infrastructure. They will demand more activity. There's a whole lot of infrastructure around those facilities. We need to be giving people a sense of confidence that we understand those pressures and that we're going to meet them. I mean, things, for example, like making sure that there are enough houses for those who are coming to be part of Submarine Rotational Force–West. All of those nitty-gritty issues we've got to be winning social licence on as well, and we're really focused on that. But this is a great opportunity for WA, it's a great opportunity for Australia, but you get it wrong and you get the social licence wrong and people don't see that. So, we're very focused on it.

PAGE: AUKUS will be heavily relying on private industry, the people in this room, to underpin it. 

MARLES: Totally.

PAGE: How will you protect industry that is aligned with AUKUS? Will Defence increase its presence further in WA to protect the submarine base?

MARLES: Well, I mean, security– there are implications for security associated with this capability, there's no doubt about that. I mean, part of being– it has really been drilled into us in all the engagements that we've had with both the US and the UK about what it is to be a safe and secure nuclear steward, security is a key part of that. That reflects the bases where activity is happening and a lot of private sector activity happens there. But it also reflects how, for example, information is managed, the physical security of the companies that are engaging in these production lines and in these supply chains. So, that's something that we will absolutely be working through with industry. It's, you know, we need to do this, we also need to do it in a way where we can bring industry along. Industry will be, I think, particularly small medium enterprises who are seeking to engage with Defence find it really difficult to meet the standards that Defence imposes in relation to a lot of these issues. And yet those standards can be critically important. So, working with industry so we can bring them along is a critical part of this as well.

PAGE: I asked about the dry dock, the audience is asking about maintenance of the Captain Cook graving dock and maintenance of the current fleet before the end of the decade.

MARLES: Well, I mean, both those things continue to be a challenge, but are happening. There are hard decisions that one needs to make in terms of ensuring that we have as much serviceability as possible from our fleet. And we made one of those in relation to the decommissioning of HMAS Anzac, for example, but the decision to decommission HMAS Anzac has allowed us to essentially use it, use the parts from it to improve the availability of the other Anzac class frigates. So, that's not an easy decision to take, but we take it to make sure that we are maximising the availability of our surface fleet. So, you know, we've got issues right now with the supply chips that we've got. So, again, where both of those are out of action as we speak today and we're working through options about how we are able to fulfil that capability whilst getting both of those ships back up and running as quickly as possible. So, there will be ongoing challenges here, but actually we do feel pretty confident about maintaining the availability of our surface fleet. But we’ve got to augment it. I mean, bottom line here is we've got to have more surface combatants and we've got to get them into service as quickly as possible and that's at the heart of the surface fleet review and the Government's response to it.

PAGE: Two more from the audience before I run out of time. So, hopefully short and sweet. How does India's continued relationship with Russia impact Australia's defence strategy and the effectiveness of the Quad?

MARLES: Look, I mean, I would say this: I think there is huge upside in our relationship with India. I don't think we've ever been more strategically aligned with India than we are right now. I think there is an opportunity for us to be close partners in a broad bilateral sense, but in a defence-to-defence sense with India, and that's certainly the road that we are walking. I mean, India has a history, as we all do, and you’ve kind of got to acknowledge that. But I think when you look forward at what the opportunities are with India, they are immense and we certainly intend to pursue them.

PAGE: Probably the key question of this conference, what is your pitch to defence industry here today? The one message you want them to hear, and also school kids who are the future AUKUS workforce?

MARLES: Well, I think that there's two sides to this. This is a moment of enormous opportunity in terms of defence industry. If you look at what continuous naval shipbuilding would represent here in Perth, this is high-skilled, high-wage employment right here in Perth. It's not flying in, flying out somewhere else in the country. The job is here, there's stability and there is an opportunity to do that job over the course of a lifetime. That is what continuous naval shipbuilding means. That's what the defence industry proposition means. So, that is a really exciting long-term structural shift and improvement in the West Australian economy. And that, in turn, represents enormous opportunities for the companies who are involved in that. 

On the other side of it, what I'd say is we are living in a troubled world. This is not, we're not doing this for no reason. We need to become a much more capable country. What we are trying to do in terms of acquiring a nuclear-powered submarine capability is the single biggest leap in Australia's military capability, really, since the establishment of the Navy in 1913. That's a big deal, but it's a response to what's going on in the world. The nation needs it. And so not only is this a great opportunity for kids to get involved, not only is it a great opportunity for defence industry companies to do business, this is actually all of those people making a contribution to our nation. There is a sense of cause here which goes beyond profit, goes beyond career. This is actually people serving their nation. And I really hope that that sense of cause and that sense of service, which really underpins the decisions that people make to wear our nation's uniform are also there in terms of the decisions that are underpinned by our defence industry and those who said to work in it.

PAGE: We're in the red now, but I'm going to beg the audience's indulgence and ask, as a visiting politician to WA, Western Derby is this weekend. Who do you tip and by how much?

MARLES: Oh, look, I hope they both lose, so I'm probably going for [indistinct].

PAGE: The other derby I suppose, politics can be a brutal sport. Kamala Harris versus Donald Trump. Thoughts?

MARLES: As the Deputy Prime Minister of Australia, I definitely should not answer that question. Look– 

PAGE: As a journalist I will definitely ask it.

MARLES: I will be as riveted as anyone. I am as riveted as anyone at what's going on in America. You know, I have my little chat group with my family about what they think is happening over there. But actually, it is important for someone in my position to say, irrespective of the outcome in November, the Alliance will continue to be as strong as it's ever been and our equities within the Alliance, including AUKUS, will absolutely be maintained. Of that I am very sure, and very confident.

PAGE: 100 per cent confident?

MARLES: I am. 

PAGE: Thank you very much for your time, really appreciate that.

MARLES: Thanks, Jess.