Regional instability and Australia’s Response

 

Address to Murdoch University

Asia Research Centre

28 September 2006

 

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INTRODUCTION

 

In my previous job I spent a lot of time visiting universities.

 

As the Minister for Defence, I not only spend time in institutions of learning of different flavour, but also in RSL’s throughout the country.  Yesterday I went to two, at Nollamara and Darling Range.

 

When you listen to Australians who have worn the Australian uniform in previous conflicts reminisce about the past, it makes you realise how much the world has changed.  For the most part those changes have been for the better.

 

For people like you, there really is a world of opportunity out there.  The forces of globalisation including freer trade, cheaper travel and improved technology mean that more young Australians have opportunities that would be unheard of to my generation and certainly to that of my parents.

 

People are increasingly able to work where they want to work, travel where they want to travel and learn from anywhere they want to learn.  If you have talent and initiative, the ocean isn’t the limit, the sky literally is.  Just ask the great nephew of Sir Walter Murdoch, after whom the university is named!

 

For those of us who are happy to spend our lives living and working in Australia, globalisation still has an enormous amount to offer by way of: smart interesting jobs; ever increasing export opportunities; better medicine; a world of information at our fingertips; technological advances that make life easier; and a variety of foods, entertainment, art and culture that make life more interesting.

 

But in the same way that we can more easily access the best the world has to offer, so can we be more readily exposed to the world’s dangers. 

 

On the 10th of February 2003, the world received the first report of a new and mysterious pneumonia-like illness in China’s Guangdong province.  Five days later a man with these symptoms travelled to Hong Kong to visit his family.  A week later he died, but not before infecting 12 people staying at his hotel.  These people then infected others in Hong Kong, Vietnam, Singapore, Ireland, Germany and Canada.

 

It used to be said metaphorically, in relation to global finance, that if Wall Street sneezes the world catches a cold. In this day and age we may need to take that idea more literally.  In this case, it’s believed that something as obscure as an animal, perhaps a pig in Guangdong, resulted in more than 8,000 people in more than 30 countries getting infected with SARS, with more than 800 deaths at an immeasurable economic cost.

 

Another example…

 

In 1986, 1987 and 1991 Mukhlas, Hambali and Samudra undertook training in camps established by religious extremists in Afghanistan.  In 2002, these three men and others played a key role in murdering 88 Australians in Bali.

 

Our law enforcement authorities remain concerned that this particular disease – an insane ideology that’s incompatible with a peaceful world – has spread to people who are working to inflict terror throughout countries including our own.

 

What these examples illustrate is that whether we’re talking about health or the defence of our nation, we can no longer afford to think of our security as something that begins and ends with our borders.  We have to appreciate that what happens in other parts of the world has everything to do with us.

 

With that in mind, I’ll spend the next 20 minutes or so offering my point of view as Defence Minister, looking at the strategic environment, the threats to our security and our response to these threats, which includes: cooperation; decisive interventions; goodwill and stability through outgoing generosity; and maintaining and building our own strengths as a nation. 

 

I’ll then be happy to answer questions.

 

 

Strategic Environment

 

Our region is dynamic and growing in strategic significance.  Asia includes 20 countries with three and a half billion people that account for almost half of the world’s trade and about 40% of global arms deliveries.  It has eight of the world’s ten largest armies.

 

The largest country in this region is China. By 2050, the IMF estimates that China will move from 13.2% to more than 20% of global GDP and India will move from 5.7% to 12.2%.  In the same period of time, it’s estimated that Australia’s proportion of global GDP will drop from 1.2% to 0.7%.

 

Our Defence relationship with China is the best that it has ever been.  However, the pace and scale of China’s defence modernisation may create the potential for misunderstandings.  It’s important the development of China’s military capability be transparent.

 

The developing relationship between the United States and China affects the entire Asia-Pacific region. The relationship is both competitive and cooperative. The growing interdependence between the two countries is significant and will increase. There will also be increasing competition for strategic influence.

 

The status of Taiwan continues to be a critical issue and a potential source of friction in relationship between China and the US. Australia is committed to a one China policy and we place importance on the peaceful resolution of any issues concerning relations across the Taiwan Strait.  Military conflict over Taiwan could have disastrous consequences for the entire region, if not the entire world.

 

China has a critical role to play in defusing the threat posed by North Korea. We have seen Kim Jong’s evil potential with the attempted launch of a Taepo Dong missile in June this year and the pursuit of nuclear weapons aspirations.  Australia continues to support the six party talks as the best mechanism for dealing with this threat.

 

The security environment in South-East Asia is markedly different from that which existed only a decade ago. Australia works hard to maintain its bilateral defence relationships in the region, particularly with Indonesia.

 

As a country of 230 million people, Indonesia’s size, historical legacy and economic potential give it huge strategic importance.  Indonesia has a particularly pivotal role to play in countering a significant and growing threat in South-East Asia.  A particular challenge for Australia is that posed by the arc of instability in our immediate north, from East Timor through to the south-west Pacific Island states.

 

We cannot afford to have failing states in our region, not only because we are very committed to preventing humanitarian disaster, but also because we cannot afford to have states to become havens for trans-national criminals and terrorists.

 

 

THREATS TO OUR SECURITY

 

In assessing our strategic environment, there are some potential threats we can more readily anticipate.  However, we face a future that will be shaped largely not by the things we know, but the things we do not.

 

In the post-September 11 world, we have to take into account an increased level of unpredictability and uncertainty, with threats capable of emerging with little warning:

 

·        The growth of non-State actors as strategic players, both globally and in our region.

·        A technological revolution in which many nations in our region will acquire the most advanced military hardware, where non-State actors can more easily gain harmful technologies.

·        Increased movement across borders, making it difficult to control the movement of people and capabilities that may pose a threat in our region.

 

Meeting these security threats requires a multi-pronged approach, including:

 

·        Cooperation with neighbours in our region.

·        Decisive and effective intervention to restore stability where instability has emerged.

·        Building stability and goodwill through ongoing assistance and generosity.

·        Maintaining our own strength as a nation, in every sense of the word.

 

 

Co-OPERATION

 

Australia works hard to strengthen relations with our Asian neighbours at every level.  In recent years we’ve committed $250 million to enhance regional security capacity and signed 11 counter terrorism memorandums of understanding with countries in our region.  We’ve focused on law enforcement, border security and intelligence. 

 

We’ve been a founding member of the East-Asia Summit and established Free Trade Agreements with Singapore and Thailand, while starting down that path with Malaysia, China, Japan and ASEAN.

 

From the perspective of Defence, Australia works closely with our neighbours, both bilaterally and through regional organisations such as APEC and the ASEAN Regional Forum. Through the ASEAN Regional Forum in particular, the Australian Defence Force is working cooperatively to improve regional peacekeeping capabilities and develop better regional responses to disaster relief.

 

Defence also contributes to the maintenance of regional security through its Defence Cooperation Programme, where we work with allies and regional partners to shape the global and regional environment. Together with the United Kingdom, New Zealand, Malaysia and Singapore, Australia continues to be an active player in regional security, through the five power defence arrangements.

 

The five power defence arrangements provide a tangible demonstration of the member countries’ continuing commitment to regional security.  Recently, the five power defence arrangements have adapted to address non-conventional threats.

 

Personnel exchanges and training exercises such as SINGAROO – the joint maritime warfare exercise involving Australian and Singaporean forces – further enhance cooperation.  I know in Western Australia and other parts of the country, there was some controversy about our special forces providing joint training with Kopassus TNI Unit 81.  But the reality is that throughout our region, we face a common enemy in the form of terrorism. Five per cent of the Australian population is overseas at any one time.  In terms of hostage recovery and counter-terrorism, particularly in Indonesia, that particular Kopassus unit is the best equipped to deal with it.

 

In that sense, it’s important we balance the concerns we have, with a very pragmatic approach to protecting our people and our interests throughout the region.

 

 

DECISIVE INTERVENTIONS

 

In recent years Australia has acted decisively to restore order and bring stability to a number of neighbouring states. In 1999, following an outbreak of violence after the people of East Timor’s decision to become independent, Australia worked in record time to put together a multinational force mandated by the UN to help restore peace and security in East Timor.

 

Within 48 hours of the first INTERFET forces arriving in Dili, 2,300 personnel were on the ground, the process of restoring peace and security to East Timor had begun and desperately needed humanitarian aid was being delivered.

 

Since that time we’ve continued to make a significant contribution to nation building in East Timor, through military and police personnel to successive UN missions in East Timor. We’ve invested over $400 million in development assistance in the last seven years. We’ve helped build capacity to manage public finance and revenue collection systems, supported the delivery of water sanitation and provided around $30 million over five years to assist the East Timorese Defence Force.

 

In 2003, in response to an invitation from the Solomon Islands, approximately 1,500 defence personnel, along with police and protective services, led a regional operation that also included contributions from New Zealand, Papua New Guinea, Fiji and Tonga, to restore security and stability. As with the case in East Timor, our intervention was backed with practical aid and civilian assistance to help build stronger institutions.

 

A practical example of this is the help provided by the Defence Force in assisting the Solomon Islands Police Force with maritime capability. The core capability is the two Australian donated Pacific patrol boats, which are used by the police for fisheries protection and increasingly, for other maritime activities such as diaster relief and border protection.

 

The going has remained tough in East Timor and Solomon Islands.  As you know there were flare ups in each of these countries earlier this year. Again, we responded decisively.  In both cases we were able to get more than 100 troops on the ground within a day of receiving the request for help.

 

Within a week of our deployment to East Timor in May this year, the Defence Force had: secured key infrastructure; successfully repatriated hundreds of Australians; facilitated a return to barracks of the East Timorese Defence and Police forces; confiscated hundreds of weapons; and assisted in the provision of humanitarian aid.

 

Our decisive action in the Solomon Islands helped provide a dramatic turnaround for the civil unrest and violence.

 

Another close neighbour, Papua New Guinea, faces significant challenges.  In 2001, Australia played a key role in bringing a peace settlement to Bougainville that brought an end to a long and bitter war. This was reflected in the comprehensive Bougainville Peace Agreement in August 2001 and the successful election of an autonomous government in June 2005.

 

We’re also working with the PNG government through the mutually agreed Enhanced Cooperation Programme which came into effect in 2003 to address PNG’s developmental challenges. The programme is focused on assisting PNG’s strength and the capacities of government systems, enhance good governance practices and reduce corruption.

 

For its part, the Australian Defence Force has a civilian financial adviser within the PNG Ministry for Defence and overall, we’ve provided an additional 40 civilian advisers attached to various PNG government agencies.

 

We’ve also got a significant footprint in PNG through 18 of our people that are working with the PNG Defence Force units in advisory and staff roles such as logistics, strategic policy training and engineering, as well as battalion liaison officers.

 

The other issue of concern in terms of security and stability, particularly in relation to PNG is some of the official estimates that 2% of their population is HIV positive.  In fact, it’s the fourth country in our region to be classified as having a generalised HIV epidemic.  In that sense, we need to think in terms of security and stability, not only of political and economic and perhaps even military insecurity, but that which is also presented by geological and infectious diseases.

 

 

ASSISTANCE & GENEROSITY

 

Australia’s reputation as a generous and compassionate nation should not be questioned. Between 2001 and 2005, the Government provided close to $12 billion in overseas development assistance. Our goal is to double our overseas aid budget to about $4 billion a year by the year 2010.  

 

For a nation of our size, Australia’s contribution to stability in our region is as substantial as it is important. Our efforts are not only morally right, but also in our national interest.

 

But we can’t bring strength to fledging nations and stability to our region, unless we’re able to maintain our own strength as a nation.

 

 

A STRONGER AUSTRALIA

 

A stronger Australia starts with a strong economy.  In ten years we’ve made some very difficult decisions to make sure we are stronger and our economic foundations are more resilient.  

 

A strong economy is not an end in itself and we need to have long-term social and human objectives for our country.  But unless we can create a strong economic foundation for our society, it is very difficult to achieve these objectives.

 

A strong economy is also the reason why we’ve been able to allocate more funding to domestic homeland security and also, the reason why we’re able to strengthen our Australian Defence Force.

 

Last month, I announced that we would increase the size of the Australian Army by two battalions (from six to eight).  That’s 2,600 more soldiers over the next ten years.  This is not a decision universally applauded by everybody, but I believe it’s something that is extremely important. 

 

One of the most important decisions taken by the Government when it came to office in 1996 and inherited a $10 billion deficit, was to not cut the Australian Defence Force’s funding.

At the same time, we embarked on a defence efficiency review and shifted $900 million a year from the back end of Defence, to the front.  In terms of what has happened in our region since, this commitment to Defence was probably one of the more pressing decisions made by the Government.

 

Perhaps in 10 or 15 years from now, future leaders will look back and say that in making a decision to increase the army, today’s Government could have done something better with that money.   I hope in many ways that this is the case, but I suspect that it won’t be.

 

These decisions have been made with a view to the future and the assessment that future security will depend significantly on our ability to put people on the ground, when and where they’re needed.  

 

 

CONCLUSION

 

In concluding, I believe there are a number of necessary preconditions for a civil society and stability.

 

1 – Conscience

 

As Benjamin Franklin observed, in order for human beings to enjoy freedom, they need to have a moral conscience and moral compass, in terms of what drives their behaviour and their actions.

 

2 – Empathy

 

In the observation of Graeme Davison, Professor of History at Monash University in his book “The Uses and Abuses of History”, one of the challenges for us in Australia, is to see that young Australians are imbued with what he described as the imaginative capacity to see the world through the eyes of other human beings.

 

In my own experience, almost all of life’s misery and suffering comes from people making themselves the centre of their own lives.  The same could be said of states and of nations. 

 

3 – Literacy

 

A third precondition for a civil society and stable world is literacy.  By this, I not only mean a capacity to read but also a capacity to understand technology that is influencing every part of the globe and a capacity to understand the science which underwrites it.

 

One of the real struggles in Afghanistan, apart from the Taliban and those who are committed to that form of ideological insanity, is that two-thirds of the population is illiterate. Only one in five children lives to the age of five. The average life expectancy is 46. GDP per head of population is US$1,000 and half of the non-aid dependent part of the economy is opium.

 

The Taliban have, in the last six months, started targeting teachers in schools.  One of my intelligence reports said there have been 170 attacks by the Taliban on teachers in the last six months.  The reason for that is that they believe the education of girls in particular will undermine what they’re trying to achieve.

 

 

4 – Values and Perspective

 

John Stuart Mill, who was one of the philosophical fathers of liberalism, said that there were two bases for any society.  One is a desire on the part of people to be governed together, that they see themselves as one grouping of people who would seek common governance. And the other is values which are informed by a commonality of feeling, language, literature and history.

 

If I were to ask the average Australian what the defence and security of Australia is about, they would probably see it as defending Australia from attack.  At this point, there is no credible immediate threat in that regard.

 

They’d probably also see Defence as the protection of our borders, protection of our gas and oil platforms and making sure that people don’t breach our sovereignty in terms of fishing or arriving here unlawfully.

 

But the real challenge for us is to make sure that Australians understand that isolationism – be it cultural, economic or political isolationism – is never going to make us safer.

 

In February this year, we saw the bombing of the Askariyya Shrine in Samarra.  In the ensuing seven months, we’ve seen the fomenting of sectarian violence by Al Qaeda, Jaysh al-Mahdi and others in Iraq and other countries.  We’ve seen a cartoon led jihad.  And we’ve seen a resurgent Taliban in Afghanistan.  

 

Afghanistan has always been the crossroads to Asia but increasingly, I see Afghanistan as being the crossroads to a modern world.

 

This is a global struggle.  We are involved in a struggle against a global insurgency of disparate groups of Islamic extremists who are not just fanatically anti-American, but fanatically opposed to the way of life and values that free countries hold dear.

 

They are people who have hijacked the name of Islam in the name of evil, to commit evil. They are people who have an attitude to the treatment of women which is incompatible with a peaceful society, let alone a peaceful world.  They are fundamentally opposed to anybody who has a different religious view of the world from their own.

 

My concern is that it is too easy for those who are opposed to the government’s policies to simply pander to a view that protection of Australia is basically about the borders in the immediate region.

 

We need to appreciate that what happens in other parts of the world, whether in the Pacific Island states, South-East Asia, Central Asia or the Middle-East has, in this day and age, everything to do with us.  If we simply think that Australia is a relatively peaceful society, that we live in a remoter part of the world, that we will leave it to others, then in my view we not only demean the values for which we have stood in our relatively short history, but we diminish ourselves and risk leaving the next generation hostage to a force it may never control.

 

This is not like a conflict after the Japanese attack on Pearl Harbour.  It is not like more conventional conflicts where there was much less controversy about whether or not we should take up arms.  But it is no less important in terms of the sort of world that will be inherited by the next generation.

 

 

EDUCATION AND THE DEFENCE OF THE NATION

 

Some of those who disagree with me and the Government’s views argue that we should invest in education and not in a larger army or a larger military.  And that is a legitimate debate.  Thank God we live in a country where we can have it and have it peacefully.

 

John Adams was the second President of the United States of America.  When he was thinking about what he would do with his life, he wrote to his wife Abigail from Paris and said to her in part: “I must study war and politics, so my sons may be free to study mathematics and philosophy”.

 

If you think about it, no one will find and achieve their potential in East Timor or Afghanistan or anywhere else, unless they are secure to pursue their freedoms, which we unfortunately, too often take for granted in our country.

 

His successor, Thomas Jefferson, when asked to nominate his greatest achievement, didn’t say being president.  He said his most important legacy was co-founding the University of Virginia.  When asked why, he said because “education is the defence of the nation”.

 

The struggle against terrorism and fundamentalist extremism is not one that will be won only with the application of intelligence and military hardware. It is as much an effort in aid, development, education and in combating what Socrates describes as the root of all evil – ignorance.

 

 

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